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Guinea-Bissau national football team
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage
Mar 27, 2023 at 5pm UK
Estadio 24 de Setembro
Nigeria national football team

Guinea-Bissau
0 - 1
Nigeria


Cassama (90')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Simon (30' pen.)
Ndidi (22'), Omeruo (36'), Uzoho (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Guinea-Bissau and Nigeria, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Nigeria 0-1 Guinea-Bissau
Friday, March 24 at 4pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Nigeria 0-1 Guinea-Bissau
Friday, March 24 at 4pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

We said: Guinea-Bissau 0-1 Nigeria

Nigeria possesses the firepower needed to get the job done and will be looking to restore some pride at the Estadio 24 de Setembro. While Guinea-Bissau now have the home advantage in their favour, we predict that the Super Eagles will scrap a narrow win and return to the top of the table. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guinea-Bissau win with a probability of 37.18%. A win for Nigeria had a probability of 35.22% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Guinea-Bissau win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.98%) and 2-0 (6.74%). The likeliest Nigeria win was 0-1 (10.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.04%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Nigeria in this match.

Result
Guinea-BissauDrawNigeria
37.18% (-0.279 -0.28) 27.6% (-0.355 -0.36) 35.22% (0.628 0.63)
Both teams to score 48.99% (1.122 1.12)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.23% (1.372 1.37)56.76% (-1.376 -1.38)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.29% (1.089 1.09)77.71% (-1.094 -1.09)
Guinea-Bissau Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.6% (0.505 0.5)29.4% (-0.51 -0.51)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.61% (0.617 0.62)65.39% (-0.622 -0.62)
Nigeria Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.38% (1.099 1.1)30.61% (-1.103 -1.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.15% (1.279 1.28)66.85% (-1.285 -1.29)
Score Analysis
    Guinea-Bissau 37.17%
    Nigeria 35.21%
    Draw 27.6%
Guinea-BissauDrawNigeria
1-0 @ 11.01% (-0.43 -0.43)
2-1 @ 7.98% (0.048 0.05)
2-0 @ 6.74% (-0.166 -0.17)
3-1 @ 3.26% (0.066 0.07)
3-0 @ 2.75% (-0.028 -0.03)
3-2 @ 1.93% (0.095 0.1)
4-1 @ 1% (0.034 0.03)
Other @ 2.5%
Total : 37.17%
1-1 @ 13.04% (-0.1 -0.1)
0-0 @ 9% (-0.486 -0.49)
2-2 @ 4.73% (0.169 0.17)
Other @ 0.83%
Total : 27.6%
0-1 @ 10.65% (-0.24 -0.24)
1-2 @ 7.72% (0.169 0.17)
0-2 @ 6.31% (0.051 0.05)
1-3 @ 3.05% (0.156 0.16)
0-3 @ 2.49% (0.094 0.09)
2-3 @ 1.86% (0.12 0.12)
1-4 @ 0.9% (0.071 0.07)
Other @ 2.24%
Total : 35.21%

How you voted: Guinea-Bissau vs Nigeria

Guinea-Bissau
14.7%
Draw
14.7%
Nigeria
70.6%
34
Head to Head
Mar 24, 2023 4pm
Jan 19, 2022 7pm
rhs 2.0
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