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Porto
Primeira Liga | Gameweek 4
Aug 28, 2021 at 6pm UK
Estádio Do Dragão
Arouca

Porto
3 - 0
Arouca

Uribe (24'), Taremi (34'), Marcano (63')
Mario (45+2'), Costa (51'), Diaz (59'), Uribe (67')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Miguel Pereira Da Silva (25'), Quaresma Correia (83'), Dabbagh (88')

Preview: Porto vs. Arouca - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Porto and Arouca, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Fresh off the back of a 1-1 draw against Maritimo, Porto will be looking to immediately return to winning ways when they welcome Arouca to the Estadio do Dragao on Saturday.

The visitors picked up their first win of the season last time out when they beat Famalicao 2-1 on home turf and will aim to build on that performance.


Match preview

Porto's Antonio Martinez celebrates scoring their second goal with teammates in January 2021© Reuters

Porto were denied a third win on the spin last Sunday when they played out a 1-1 draw against a resilient Maritimo side in Funchal.

The hosts put on a defensive show of class in the second half to deny Porto all three points after Bruno Xadas cancelled out Luis Diaz's opener on the stroke of half time.

Prior to that, Sergio Conceicao's side picked up two wins from their opening two games of the season, beating Belenenses and Famalicao while scoring two goals in both ties.

The Dragoes have now avoided defeat in their last 15 games across all competitions, dating back to a 2-0 defeat against Chelsea in the Champions League quarter-finals back in April.

Having picked up seven wins from their previous eight meetings, Porto will feel confident of getting the better of Arouca, who have endured an unconvincing start to the season.

Saturday's visitors picked up their first win since returning to the Portuguese top flight when they beat Famalicao 2-1 at the Estadio Municipal de Arouca last Friday.

After falling behind to Bruno Rodrigues's 23rd-minute opener, Arouca upped the ante in the second half and forced an impressive comeback with goals from defender Joao Basso and Portuguese midfielder Leandro Silva.

Prior to that, the Arouquenses lost each of their last three games in all competitions, including a 1-0 defeat against Rio Ave which condemned them to a second-round exit from the Taca da Liga qualifiers.

Despite Friday's win, head coach Armando Evangelista will be concerned by his misfiring strikers, who have failed to find the back of the net in any of their last four outings.

However, after closing the 2020-21 season with 11 straight wins, scoring 24 goals and keeping eight clean sheets to end their four-year absence from the Primeira Liga, Arouca will feel optimistic about their chances of surging up the table in the coming weeks.

Porto Primeira Liga form:
  • W
  • W
  • D

Porto form (all competitions):
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • D

Arouca Primeira Liga form:
  • L
  • L
  • W

Arouca form (all competitions):
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • W


Team News

Porto head coach Sergio Conceicao pictured on February 17, 2021© Reuters

Porto will once again take to the pitch without the services of former Liverpool midfielder Marko Grujic, who came off with a muscle injury in May's friendly against Lyon.

Argentine goalkeeper Agustin Marchesin will go under the knife after sustaining a meniscus injury, meaning Diogo Costa will start between the sticks on Saturday.

Following their solid defensive display last time out, we expect Conceicao to name an unchanged back four with full-back Ivan Marcano in line for his second straight starting appearance.

The Arouquenses are expected to line up in a similar four-man defence with Mateus Quaresma, Joao Basso, Sema Velazquez and Thales shielding Fernando Castro between the sticks.

First-choice goalkeeper Victor Braga will serve the second of his three-game suspension after picking up a straight red card inside the first 10 minutes of Arouca's game versus Benfica.

Teenage midfielder Antony Santos has been out of action since picking up a knee injury back in March and will play no part in this tie.

Porto possible starting lineup:
D Costa; Mario, Pepe, Mbemba, Marcano; Otavio, B Costa, Uribe, Diaz; Taremi, Martinez

Arouca possible starting lineup:
Castro; Thales, Basso, Velazquez, Quaresma; Silva, Moreira, Bukia; Ofori, Nunes, Silva


SM words green background

We say: Porto 3-0 Arouca

Fresh off the back of picking up their first win of the campaign, Arouca will head into the game feeling positive. While they will look to cause an upset, we are tipping Porto to claim a comfortable win as they boast a significantly stronger and more experienced crop of players.

Considering Arouca's struggles in front of goal, we also predict the hosts will come away with a clean sheet.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 72.27%. A draw had a probability of 16.3% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 11.39%.

The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.4%) and 3-0 (8.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.56%), while for an Arouca win it was 1-2 (3.36%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Porto vs Arouca

Porto
92.9%
Draw
7.1%
Arouca
0.0%
28
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rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CSporting Lisbon34293296296790
2Benfica34255477284980
3Porto34226663273672
4Braga34215871502168
5Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes34196952381463
6MoreirenseMoreirense34167113635155
7AroucaArouca34137145450446
8FamalicaoFamalicao341012123741-442
9Casa Pia34108163850-1238
10SC FarenseFarense34107174651-537
11Rio AveRio Ave3461993843-537
12Gil Vicente3499164252-1036
13Estoril PraiaEstoril3496194958-933
14Estrela Amadora34712153353-2033
15BoavistaBoavista34711163962-2332
16PortimonensePortimonense3488183972-3332
RVizela34511183666-3026
RChavesChaves3458213172-4123


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