Looking to continue their strong start to the Major League Soccer campaign, New York City FC take on Columbus Crew at the weekend.
The Pigeons currently sit in third spot in the Eastern Conference thanks to a strong start, with eight points from their opening five games, while the visitors sit in 11th place but remain only three points behind their opponents.
Match preview
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After a narrow defeat to DC United on the opening day of the MLS season, New York City have bounced back well with two wins and two draws from their last four matches.
They followed that loss up with consecutive victories, firstly defeating Cincinnati 5-0 thanks to a Jesus Medina brace, a Nick Hagglund own goal and goals from Gudmundur Thorarinsson and Valentin Castellanos.
Ronny Deila's side then secured a 2-0 victory away against Philadelphia Union, as Medina and Castellanos again got on the scoresheet.
Since those victories, the New York side have played out two consecutive 1-1 draws, firstly away against Orlando City as Castellanos netted the equaliser from the penalty spot in the 77th minute after Nani's opener for the hosts.
Last time out, The Boys in Blue drew 1-1 at home to Toronto FC, as Medina's opening goal in the 53rd minute was cancelled out by a Jacob Shaffelburg equaliser in the final 15 minutes.
While eight points is a commendable tally from a tough opening schedule, Deila's men will be hopeful of making a return to winning ways at the weekend to take their total to 11 points from six matches and cement themselves at the top end of the division.
They take on a Columbus side who have had a steady start to the campaign, but could move into the playoff places with a victory.
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The visitors come into this game on the back of consecutive defeats, most recently losing 1-0 away against New England Revolution.
The game looked set to end goalless until an Adam Buksa winner in the 86th minute ensured the Ohio outfit went home empty-handed.
That followed a 2-0 defeat away to Toronto, as Michael Bradley opened the scoring in the 13th minute before Jozy Altidore added a second in the final five minutes to seal the victory for the hosts.
As a result, Caleb Porter's side have dropped to 11th spot in the Eastern Conference with five points and just one victory from their first five league matches.
However, given the early stage of the season, they do sit just three points behind their opponents in third place, meaning an important victory on the road would quickly see The Crew move up into the playoff places.
They will be confident of sealing a top-seven finish after an impressive campaign last year, when Porter's men ended the regular season in third spot in the Eastern Conference while also winning the MLS Cup in December, after a 3-0 victory over Seattle Sounders in the final.
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Team News
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New York City midfielder Maxi Moralez is expected to continue his spell on the sidelines, having missed the last two matches with a hamstring injury.
He will be joined by Heber, who is yet to feature this season, while Gedion Zelalem and Anton Tinnerholm could both remain out through injury issues.
The attack will be led by the exciting pair of Valentin Castellanos and Jesus Medina, having netted a combined eight goals in the first five games of the season.
Columbus' new signing Kevin Molino is yet to feature for the club since his move from Minnesota United due to a muscle injury, and he will miss out again on Sunday.
He should be joined by Perry Kitchen, Milton Valenzuela and Marlon Hairston, with all three absent from the squad last time out.
In the absence of several attacking players, Gyasi Zardes should continue to lead the line with the support of Derrick Etienne and Luis Diaz from the wide areas.
New York City FC possible starting lineup:
Johnson; Amundsen, Callens, Chanot, Thorarinsson; Parks, Sands; Medina, Jasson, Tajouri; Castellanos
Columbus Crew possible starting lineup:
Room; Afful, Williams, Mensah, Francis; Nagbe, Artur; Diaz, Santos, Etienne; Zardes
We say: New York City FC 2-1 Columbus Crew
New York City have had a strong start to the campaign, and we expect them to be close to the top of the Eastern Conference at the end of the season.
The Boys in Blue should have too much for Columbus on Sunday, as they aim to make it three wins from their opening six MLS matches, and cement themselves in the top three.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 65.12%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for Columbus Crew had a probability of 15.76%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.82%) and 1-0 (8.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.83%), while for a Columbus Crew win it was 1-2 (4.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.
