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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Plymouth Argyle win with a probability of 54.17%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Exeter City had a probability of 21.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a Plymouth Argyle win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.23%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.62%), while for a Exeter City win it was 0-1 (7.03%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Plymouth Argyle would win this match.
Result | ||
Plymouth Argyle | Draw | Exeter City |
54.17% ( 0.2) | 24.47% ( -0.04) | 21.35% ( -0.16) |
Both teams to score 49.21% ( -0.1) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
47.93% ( -0.02) | 52.07% ( 0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
26.2% ( -0.02) | 73.79% ( 0.02) |
Plymouth Argyle Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.85% ( 0.07) | 19.15% ( -0.07) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.2% ( 0.12) | 50.8% ( -0.12) |
Exeter City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
60.86% ( -0.17) | 39.13% ( 0.18) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
24.15% ( -0.16) | 75.85% ( 0.16) |
Score Analysis |
Plymouth Argyle | Draw | Exeter City |
1-0 @ 12.38% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 10.23% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 9.6% ( 0) 3-0 @ 5.64% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 5.29% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.48% ( -0) 4-0 @ 2.33% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 2.19% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.03% Other @ 2.99% Total : 54.16% | 1-1 @ 11.62% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 7.49% ( 0) 2-2 @ 4.51% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.86% Total : 24.47% | 0-1 @ 7.03% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 5.45% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 3.3% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 1.71% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.41% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.03% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.43% Total : 21.35% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Portsmouth | 46 | 28 | 13 | 5 | 78 | 41 | 37 | 97 |
P | Derby CountyDerby | 46 | 28 | 8 | 10 | 78 | 37 | 41 | 92 |
3 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 46 | 25 | 12 | 9 | 86 | 51 | 35 | 87 |
4 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 46 | 25 | 9 | 12 | 89 | 61 | 28 | 84 |
5 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 46 | 22 | 11 | 13 | 79 | 56 | 23 | 77 |
6 | Barnsley | 46 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 82 | 64 | 18 | 76 |
7 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 46 | 20 | 14 | 12 | 65 | 40 | 25 | 74 |
8 | Blackpool | 46 | 21 | 10 | 15 | 65 | 48 | 17 | 73 |
9 | Stevenage | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 57 | 46 | 11 | 71 |
10 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 46 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 60 | 55 | 5 | 65 |
11 | Leyton Orient | 46 | 18 | 11 | 17 | 53 | 55 | -2 | 65 |
12 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 46 | 20 | 10 | 16 | 63 | 56 | 7 | 62 |
13 | Exeter CityExeter | 46 | 17 | 10 | 19 | 46 | 61 | -15 | 61 |
14 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 46 | 17 | 9 | 20 | 57 | 66 | -9 | 60 |
15 | Bristol Rovers | 46 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 52 | 68 | -16 | 57 |
16 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 46 | 11 | 20 | 15 | 64 | 65 | -1 | 53 |
17 | Reading | 46 | 16 | 11 | 19 | 68 | 70 | -2 | 53 |
18 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 46 | 12 | 12 | 22 | 39 | 61 | -22 | 48 |
19 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 46 | 13 | 9 | 24 | 35 | 67 | -32 | 48 |
20 | Burton Albion | 46 | 12 | 10 | 24 | 39 | 67 | -28 | 46 |
R | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 46 | 12 | 8 | 26 | 41 | 65 | -24 | 44 |
R | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 46 | 10 | 13 | 23 | 49 | 72 | -23 | 43 |
R | Port Vale | 46 | 10 | 11 | 25 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 41 |
R | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 46 | 7 | 9 | 30 | 41 | 81 | -40 | 30 |
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