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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Morecambe win with a probability of 42.51%. A win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 31.95% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Morecambe win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.92%) and 2-0 (7.18%). The likeliest Cheltenham Town win was 0-1 (8.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Morecambe would win this match.
Result | ||
Morecambe | Draw | Cheltenham Town |
42.51% ( 2.18) | 25.53% ( -1.84) | 31.95% ( -0.34) |
Both teams to score 54.84% ( 5.68) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.03% ( 7.34) | 48.96% ( -7.34) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
28.95% ( 6.28) | 71.05% ( -6.28) |
Morecambe Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.08% ( 4.44) | 22.92% ( -4.44) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
43.31% ( 6.14) | 56.68% ( -6.14) |
Cheltenham Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.15% ( 3.46) | 28.85% ( -3.47) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.28% ( 4.1) | 64.71% ( -4.11) |
Score Analysis |
Morecambe | Draw | Cheltenham Town |
1-0 @ 9.74% ( -1.72) 2-1 @ 8.92% ( 0.53) 2-0 @ 7.18% ( -0.25) 3-1 @ 4.38% ( 0.76) 3-0 @ 3.52% ( 0.32) 3-2 @ 2.72% ( 0.68) 4-1 @ 1.61% ( 0.44) 4-0 @ 1.3% ( 0.26) 4-2 @ 1% ( 0.34) Other @ 2.14% Total : 42.51% | 1-1 @ 12.1% ( -0.84) 0-0 @ 6.61% ( -2.23) 2-2 @ 5.54% ( 0.81) 3-3 @ 1.13% ( 0.36) Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.52% | 0-1 @ 8.22% ( -1.77) 1-2 @ 7.53% ( 0.22) 0-2 @ 5.11% ( -0.53) 1-3 @ 3.12% ( 0.37) 2-3 @ 2.3% ( 0.51) 0-3 @ 2.12% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 0.97% ( 0.19) Other @ 2.6% Total : 31.96% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Portsmouth | 46 | 28 | 13 | 5 | 78 | 41 | 37 | 97 |
P | Derby CountyDerby | 46 | 28 | 8 | 10 | 78 | 37 | 41 | 92 |
3 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 46 | 25 | 12 | 9 | 86 | 51 | 35 | 87 |
4 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 46 | 25 | 9 | 12 | 89 | 61 | 28 | 84 |
5 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 46 | 22 | 11 | 13 | 79 | 56 | 23 | 77 |
6 | Barnsley | 46 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 82 | 64 | 18 | 76 |
7 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 46 | 20 | 14 | 12 | 65 | 40 | 25 | 74 |
8 | Blackpool | 46 | 21 | 10 | 15 | 65 | 48 | 17 | 73 |
9 | Stevenage | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 57 | 46 | 11 | 71 |
10 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 46 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 60 | 55 | 5 | 65 |
11 | Leyton Orient | 46 | 18 | 11 | 17 | 53 | 55 | -2 | 65 |
12 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 46 | 20 | 10 | 16 | 63 | 56 | 7 | 62 |
13 | Exeter CityExeter | 46 | 17 | 10 | 19 | 46 | 61 | -15 | 61 |
14 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 46 | 17 | 9 | 20 | 57 | 66 | -9 | 60 |
15 | Bristol Rovers | 46 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 52 | 68 | -16 | 57 |
16 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 46 | 11 | 20 | 15 | 64 | 65 | -1 | 53 |
17 | Reading | 46 | 16 | 11 | 19 | 68 | 70 | -2 | 53 |
18 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 46 | 12 | 12 | 22 | 39 | 61 | -22 | 48 |
19 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 46 | 13 | 9 | 24 | 35 | 67 | -32 | 48 |
20 | Burton Albion | 46 | 12 | 10 | 24 | 39 | 67 | -28 | 46 |
R | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 46 | 12 | 8 | 26 | 41 | 65 | -24 | 44 |
R | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 46 | 10 | 13 | 23 | 49 | 72 | -23 | 43 |
R | Port Vale | 46 | 10 | 11 | 25 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 41 |
R | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 46 | 7 | 9 | 30 | 41 | 81 | -40 | 30 |
> League One Full Table |