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Bristol City
Championship | Gameweek 12
Nov 21, 2020 at 3pm UK
Ashton Gate Stadium
Derby logo

Bristol City
1 - 0
Derby

Diedhiou (78')
Paterson (46')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Buchanan (58')

Preview: Bristol City vs. Derby County - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship fixture between Bristol City and Derby County, including predictions, team news and lineups.

Saturday sees the coming together of two sides facing different types of turmoil, as managerless Derby County travel to a COVID-19-hit Bristol City.

Former Dutch international Phillip Cocu left by mutual consent as Derby County hit the bottom of the table after a 2-0 home defeat to Barnsley.

Despite their decent league standing, it will be the pandemic that threatens to stand in City's way after they were forced to shut down their training ground after an outbreak of the virus.


Match preview

Bristol City players celebrate after Jamie Paterson's goal against Huddersfield Town on November 3, 2020© Reuters

Dean Holden's Bristol City side come into this fixture with little preparation after the news broke that several players and staff had tested positive for COVID-19.

The hosts currently sit in fifth place in the table having beaten Cardiff City 1-0 last time out, and will be looking to make it three wins from three on the weekend.

The Robins would have been expected to come out on top against bottom club Derby, who look set to be under the leadership of an interim coaching team including captain Wayne Rooney, but may face a stiffer test after all.

After a rocky period of form that left City without a win in five, they have come back to win two on the trot, reviving their promotion hopes and breaking them back into the playoff spots.

To continue that form, Holden will be keen to sure things up at the back having not kept a clean sheet at home in their last four, and only three clean sheets in their last 20 home games.

Derby County's Wayne Rooney pictured in October 2020© Reuters

In what has been a dreadful start to the season for Derby County, they currently sit rock bottom of the table with only six points to their name.

Only one win this season, two in the last 17, and 18 in Cocu's 57 league fixtures in charge is not strong protection for when the axe is swinging, and as a result, all parties agreed that it was time for Cocu to go.

The move will leave a management team of Shay Given, Liam Rosenior and Wayne Rooney in charge until a replacement is found, as they attempt to get Derby off the bottom of English football's second tier - their lowest position in 12 years.

The managerial appointment is being influenced by Sheikh Khaled, whose takeover is set to be concluded within the next 48 hours.

Khaled is the cousin of Manchester City owner Sheikh Mansour and it is understood a permanent successor to Cocu will not be announced until after the takeover has been completed

Bristol City Championship form: LDLLWW

Derby County Championship form: LDDDLL


Team News

Bristol City manager Dean Holden pictured in October 2020© Reuters

Adam Nagy is progressing well and could be fit to return to City action, however, Tomas Kalas is facing between four and six weeks on the sidelines after suffering a hamstring tear.

Meanwhile, Korey Smith (foot) and Jay Dasilva (tibia) continue their respective treatment, and Niki Maenpaa followed up his return to the City squad after injury with 90 minutes for the Under-23s this week.

Wayne Rooney is expected to lead Derby out on the weekend, leaving touchline duties to Given and Rosenior.

It is unclear whether the interim management will look to make any first-team changes as they enter this fixture with a clean bill of health, which could see them field the same XI that faced Barnsley before the international break.

Bristol City possible starting lineup:
Bentley; Vyner, Moore, Kalas; Hunt, Bakinson, Nagy, Dasilva; Paterson; Martin, Wells

Derby County possible starting lineup:
Marshall; Wisdom, Davies, Clarke, Forsyth; Bird, Shinnie; Jozwiak, Rooney, Holmes; Waghorn


SM words green background

We say: Bristol City 2-0 Derby County

Though we are likely to see some form of revival from Derby, as is often the case when new management takes charge, we see City being too strong for the Rams and expect them to secure their seventh win of the season.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data


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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bristol City win with a probability of 40.53%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 32.55% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bristol City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.51%) and 2-0 (7.31%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (9.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.77%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 11% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Bristol City in this match.


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General view of Bristol City's Ashton Gate taken January 2018
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