The Wild Card Round wraps up on Monday when the Dallas Cowboys head to Raymond James Stadium in search of their first road victory versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in over a decade.
Tampa claimed the NFC South crown for a second successive campaign, despite a losing record during the regular season (8-9), while the Cowboys failed to defend their NFC East title, finishing second at 12-5.
Match preview
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It is fair to say the veteran Buccaneers looked like a shadow of their former selves offensively during the regular season, registering the second-fewest points in their conference.
Countless times over the course of the campaign, the Bucs failed to execute in the red zone, ranked 22nd in the NFL in that part of the field, while only converting 37.4% of their third downs.
When facing this offensive unit, it is a good bet they will go to the air early, and often as the Bucs were dead last in the running game this season but averaged 269.8 passing yards per game, the second-highest mark in the NFL, with two 1,000-yard receivers to count upon.
Even though they only had 10 interceptions in 2022-23, Todd Bowles's defence did not give up many big plays, allowing the sixth-fewest yards passing per attempt (6.7) and the eighth-fewest yards-per-catch (10.4).
Overall, Tampa gave up a rating of between 95 and 111 to pass catchers this season, struggling in particular against opposing tight ends, conceding the sixth-highest rating to them during the campaign (111.5).
They had a formidable defensive line however, in the regular season, finishing tied for seventh in sacks (45), with a blitz percentage of 30.3%.
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Mike McCarthy and the Cowboys scraped their way through games down the home stretch of the regular season but still managed to make the playoffs in back-to-back seasons for the first time since the 2006 and 07 campaigns.
Dallas have been in a gift-giving mood of late, with an interception and fumble in each of its previous two contests, while they have not ended a game turnover-free since defeating the Minnesota Vikings 40-3 on November 20.
Fortunately, their defence managed to create plenty of turnovers throughout the regular season, finishing with a +10-turnover differential, the second-highest mark in the NFL.
America's Team registered the third-most sacks in the league (54) and might have the deepest group of defensive linemen and linebackers in the game, as four players had six or more sacks this season.
Their defence did an excellent job of getting off the field in third down situations, as their opponents could only convert 37.7% of those situations against Dallas this season, while the Cowboys had the ninth-best defence in the red zone.
It has been a while since this franchise won a playoff game on the road, back in the 1992-93 season when they defeated the San Francisco 49ers 30-20 at Candlestick Park in the NFC Championship Game, winning the Super Bowl two weeks later.
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Team News
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Tom Brady suffered his first losing season in the NFL in 2022-23, though the Bucs QB was third in passing among quarterbacks (4,694), with a rating of 102.5 against the blitz, with his primary receiving threats being Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, who each had 1,000-yard campaigns.
Leonard Fournette had fewer than 200 carries out of the backfield, but his best outing was in their opener versus the Cowboys when he ran for 127 yards, while Carlton Davis, Sean Murphy-Bunting and Jamel Dean all allowed sub-80 ratings to quarterbacks this season, though those numbers are a little skewed as they each missed some time through injury.
Vita Vea is dealing with a calf strain, Logan Ryan saw limited practice time this week due to a problem in his knee, Keanu Neal has a hip flexor, John Molchon should be available despite a tender ankle, Nick Leverett did not practice on Friday as he is recovering from knee/shoulder issues, while Robert Hainsey might be a game-time decision because of a hamstring injury.
Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott has developed a nasty habit of throwing the ball to the opposition, with an interception in seven consecutive games, CeeDee Lamb was their leading receiver with 1,359, while the running duo of Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott are struggling, failing to register 100 yards on the ground between them since December 18th.
Micah Parsons should be in the running for Defensive Player of the Year, as the Cowboys linebacker had 13.5 sacks in 2022-23, while Donovan Wilson made 101 tackles.
Trevon Diggs had 14 passes defended, as he and Malik Hooker each made three interceptions, DaRon Bland led them with five picks, while newcomer TY Hilton is still getting used to this offensive system as the former Indianapolis Colts receiver has not caught more than four passes in a game since joining Dallas last month.
Trayvon Mullen was sick on Friday and did not practice, and Leighton Vander Esch should be available despite experiencing some tenderness in his neck.
Tyron Smith has a sore knee, and Tyler Biadasz is expected to dress even though he previously suffered an ankle injury.
Head To Head
Tampa won the previous two meetings versus Dallas, including their season opener 19-3, on a day in which Mike Evans had a touchdown catch and Ryan Succop booted four field goals.
The last time the Bucs welcomed the Cowboys to Raymond James Stadium, it was a nail-biter as Rob Gronkowski had a pair of TD catches for the home team, and Succop made the winning kick with two seconds remaining in the fourth quarter helping Tampa Bay triumph 31-29.
You have to go back to the 2011 campaign for the last time Dallas won in Tampa when Tony Romo ran for a score and threw one to Miles Austin, Laurent Robinson and Dez Bryant, respectively, as the Cowboys came away with a 31-15 victory.
These teams have met twice in the postseason, the first time being in the NFC Divisional Round in January 1982 when Timmy Newsome, James Jones, Tony Dorsett and Ron Springs each had a running touchdown, and the Cowboys romped to a 38-0 win at Texas Stadium.
In the Wild Card Round a year later, the Cowboys beat Tampa 30-17 as Newsome caught a touchdown pass from Danny White, as did Springs, while Rafael Septien made three field goals and Monty Hunter had a pick-six on Bucs pivot Doug Williams in the fourth quarter.
We say: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28-24 Dallas Cowboys
Brady is a perfect 7-0 in his career versus the Cowboys, while Dallas have struggled on grass fields this season, going 1-4, and they will be playing on another one come Monday.
These teams make their share of mistakes offensively, but Brady's quick passing enables them to hang around with a chance to win, while Prescott's mistakes seem to kill any momentum the Cowboys might be able to conjure up.
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