Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 43.2%. A win for Marseille had a probability of 33.26% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.32%) and 2-0 (6.16%). The likeliest Marseille win was 1-2 (7.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.63%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Paris Saint-Germain would win this match.
Result | ||
Paris Saint-Germain | Draw | Marseille |
43.2% ( -0.01) | 23.54% ( -0) | 33.26% ( 0.01) |
Both teams to score 62.36% ( 0.02) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
60.63% ( 0.02) | 39.36% ( -0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
38.3% ( 0.02) | 61.7% ( -0.02) |
Paris Saint-Germain Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.41% ( 0.01) | 18.58% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
50.14% ( 0.01) | 49.86% ( -0.01) |
Marseille Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
76.59% ( 0.02) | 23.41% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
42.6% ( 0.02) | 57.39% ( -0.03) |
Score Analysis |
Paris Saint-Germain | Draw | Marseille |
2-1 @ 8.95% ( -0) 1-0 @ 7.32% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 6.16% ( -0) 3-1 @ 5.02% 3-2 @ 3.64% ( 0) 3-0 @ 3.46% ( -0) 4-1 @ 2.11% 4-2 @ 1.53% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.45% Other @ 3.56% Total : 43.2% | 1-1 @ 10.63% 2-2 @ 6.5% ( 0) 0-0 @ 4.35% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.76% ( 0) Other @ 0.3% Total : 23.54% | 1-2 @ 7.72% ( 0) 0-1 @ 6.32% ( -0) 0-2 @ 4.59% 1-3 @ 3.74% ( 0) 2-3 @ 3.14% ( 0) 0-3 @ 2.22% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.36% ( 0) 2-4 @ 1.14% ( 0) Other @ 3.05% Total : 33.26% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 34 | 22 | 10 | 2 | 81 | 33 | 48 | 76 |
2 | MonacoMonaco | 34 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 42 | 26 | 67 |
3 | Brest | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 53 | 34 | 19 | 61 |
4 | Lille | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 52 | 34 | 18 | 59 |
5 | Nice | 34 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 40 | 29 | 11 | 55 |
6 | Lyon | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 49 | 55 | -6 | 53 |
7 | Lens | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 45 | 37 | 8 | 51 |
8 | Marseille | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 52 | 41 | 11 | 50 |
9 | Reims | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 42 | 47 | -5 | 47 |
10 | Rennes | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 53 | 46 | 7 | 46 |
11 | Toulouse | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 42 | 46 | -4 | 43 |
12 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 43 | 48 | -5 | 41 |
13 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 39 |
14 | NantesNantes | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 30 | 55 | -25 | 33 |
15 | Le HavreLe Havre | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 32 |
16 | Lorient | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 43 | 66 | -23 | 29 |
17 | Metz | 34 | 8 | 5 | 21 | 35 | 58 | -23 | 29 |
R | Clermont | 34 | 5 | 10 | 19 | 26 | 60 | -34 | 25 |
> Ligue 1 Full Table |