Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 49.19%. A win for Roma had a probability of 25.76% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.45%) and 2-0 (8.79%). The likeliest Roma win was 0-1 (7.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.91%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.
Result | ||
AC Milan | Draw | Roma |
49.19% ( -0.05) | 25.05% ( 0.01) | 25.76% ( 0.04) |
Both teams to score 52.4% ( -0) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.69% ( -0.02) | 50.3% ( 0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.75% ( -0.02) | 72.25% ( 0.02) |
AC Milan Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.53% ( -0.03) | 20.47% ( 0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
47.06% ( -0.05) | 52.93% ( 0.05) |
Roma Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.88% ( 0.02) | 34.11% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.19% ( 0.02) | 70.8% ( -0.02) |
Score Analysis |
AC Milan | Draw | Roma |
1-0 @ 11.07% 2-1 @ 9.45% ( -0) 2-0 @ 8.79% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 5% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 4.65% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.69% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.98% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.84% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.07% ( -0) Other @ 2.67% Total : 49.19% | 1-1 @ 11.91% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.98% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.08% ( 0) 3-3 @ 0.96% Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.05% | 0-1 @ 7.51% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 6.41% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 4.04% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.3% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.82% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.45% ( 0) Other @ 2.24% Total : 25.76% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Inter Milan | 38 | 29 | 7 | 2 | 89 | 22 | 67 | 94 |
2 | AC Milan | 38 | 22 | 9 | 7 | 76 | 49 | 27 | 75 |
3 | Juventus | 38 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 54 | 31 | 23 | 71 |
4 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 38 | 21 | 6 | 11 | 72 | 42 | 30 | 69 |
5 | Bologna | 38 | 18 | 14 | 6 | 54 | 32 | 22 | 68 |
6 | Roma | 38 | 18 | 9 | 11 | 65 | 46 | 19 | 63 |
7 | Lazio | 38 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 49 | 39 | 10 | 61 |
8 | Fiorentina | 38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | 61 | 46 | 15 | 60 |
9 | Torino | 38 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 36 | 36 | 0 | 53 |
10 | Napoli | 38 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 55 | 48 | 7 | 53 |
11 | Genoa | 38 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 45 | 45 | 0 | 49 |
12 | Monza | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 39 | 51 | -12 | 45 |
13 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 38 | 51 | -13 | 38 |
14 | Lecce | 38 | 8 | 14 | 16 | 32 | 54 | -22 | 38 |
15 | Udinese | 38 | 6 | 19 | 13 | 37 | 53 | -16 | 37 |
16 | CagliariCagliari | 38 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 42 | 68 | -26 | 36 |
17 | Empoli | 38 | 9 | 9 | 20 | 29 | 54 | -25 | 36 |
R | FrosinoneFrosinone | 38 | 8 | 11 | 19 | 44 | 69 | -25 | 35 |
R | SassuoloSassuolo | 38 | 7 | 9 | 22 | 43 | 75 | -32 | 30 |
R | Salernitana | 38 | 2 | 11 | 25 | 32 | 81 | -49 | 17 |
> Serie A Full Table |