Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 42.03%. A win for Napoli had a probability of 32.56% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.88%) and 2-0 (7%). The likeliest Napoli win was 0-1 (8.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.02%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.
Result | ||
Roma | Draw | Napoli |
42.03% ( -0.83) | 25.41% ( 0.18) | 32.56% ( 0.65) |
Both teams to score 55.49% ( -0.36) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.78% ( -0.58) | 48.23% ( 0.58) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.62% ( -0.53) | 70.38% ( 0.54) |
Roma Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.17% ( -0.64) | 22.83% ( 0.65) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
43.45% ( -0.96) | 56.56% ( 0.97) |
Napoli Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.91% ( 0.14) | 28.09% ( -0.13) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.24% ( 0.17) | 63.76% ( -0.17) |
Score Analysis |
Roma | Draw | Napoli |
1-0 @ 9.47% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 8.88% ( -0.1) 2-0 @ 7% ( -0.1) 3-1 @ 4.37% ( -0.13) 3-0 @ 3.44% ( -0.12) 3-2 @ 2.78% ( -0.08) 4-1 @ 1.62% ( -0.08) 4-0 @ 1.27% ( -0.07) 4-2 @ 1.03% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.17% Total : 42.03% | 1-1 @ 12.02% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 6.41% ( 0.15) 2-2 @ 5.64% ( -0.04) 3-3 @ 1.18% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.4% | 0-1 @ 8.14% ( 0.22) 1-2 @ 7.64% ( 0.09) 0-2 @ 5.17% ( 0.16) 1-3 @ 3.23% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 2.39% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 2.19% ( 0.08) 1-4 @ 1.03% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.78% Total : 32.56% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Inter Milan | 38 | 29 | 7 | 2 | 89 | 22 | 67 | 94 |
2 | AC Milan | 38 | 22 | 9 | 7 | 76 | 49 | 27 | 75 |
3 | Juventus | 38 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 54 | 31 | 23 | 71 |
4 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 38 | 21 | 6 | 11 | 72 | 42 | 30 | 69 |
5 | Bologna | 38 | 18 | 14 | 6 | 54 | 32 | 22 | 68 |
6 | Roma | 38 | 18 | 9 | 11 | 65 | 46 | 19 | 63 |
7 | Lazio | 38 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 49 | 39 | 10 | 61 |
8 | Fiorentina | 38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | 61 | 46 | 15 | 60 |
9 | Torino | 38 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 36 | 36 | 0 | 53 |
10 | Napoli | 38 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 55 | 48 | 7 | 53 |
11 | Genoa | 38 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 45 | 45 | 0 | 49 |
12 | Monza | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 39 | 51 | -12 | 45 |
13 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 38 | 51 | -13 | 38 |
14 | Lecce | 38 | 8 | 14 | 16 | 32 | 54 | -22 | 38 |
15 | Udinese | 38 | 6 | 19 | 13 | 37 | 53 | -16 | 37 |
16 | CagliariCagliari | 38 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 42 | 68 | -26 | 36 |
17 | Empoli | 38 | 9 | 9 | 20 | 29 | 54 | -25 | 36 |
R | FrosinoneFrosinone | 38 | 8 | 11 | 19 | 44 | 69 | -25 | 35 |
R | SassuoloSassuolo | 38 | 7 | 9 | 22 | 43 | 75 | -32 | 30 |
R | Salernitana | 38 | 2 | 11 | 25 | 32 | 81 | -49 | 17 |
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