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Serie A | Gameweek 16
Dec 17, 2023 at 11.30am UK
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Monza

AC Milan
3 - 0
Monza

Reijnders (3'), Simic (41'), Okafor (76')
Reijnders (34')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Carboni (55'), Gagliardini (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between AC Milan and Monza, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Newcastle 1-2 AC Milan
Wednesday, December 13 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Monza 1-0 Genoa
Sunday, December 10 at 2pm in Serie A

We said: AC Milan 1-1 Monza

Milan are the only team yet to draw a home match in Serie A this season, but that streak may come to an end on Sunday afternoon. A hangover from their Champions League exploits is a distinct possibility, while Monza are no pushovers and will be motivated by meeting their illustrious regional rivals. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 55.06%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Monza had a probability of 22.34%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.57%) and 2-0 (8.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.58%), while for a Monza win it was 1-2 (5.85%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.

Result
AC MilanDrawMonza
55.06% (2.179 2.18) 22.59% (-0.954 -0.95) 22.34% (-1.227 -1.23)
Both teams to score 56.51% (1.616 1.62)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.97% (2.876 2.88)43.03% (-2.878 -2.88)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
34.57% (2.786 2.79)65.43% (-2.788 -2.79)
AC Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.47% (1.801 1.8)15.52% (-1.802 -1.8)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.56% (3.254 3.25)44.44% (-3.256 -3.26)
Monza Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.9% (0.496 0.5)33.1% (-0.498 -0.5)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.3% (0.542 0.54)69.7% (-0.544 -0.54)
Score Analysis
    AC Milan 55.06%
    Monza 22.34%
    Draw 22.59%
AC MilanDrawMonza
2-1 @ 9.86% (0.102 0.1)
1-0 @ 9.57% (-0.628 -0.63)
2-0 @ 8.92% (-0.028 -0.03)
3-1 @ 6.12% (0.421 0.42)
3-0 @ 5.54% (0.31 0.31)
3-2 @ 3.38% (0.274 0.27)
4-1 @ 2.85% (0.352 0.35)
4-0 @ 2.58% (0.287 0.29)
4-2 @ 1.58% (0.214 0.21)
5-1 @ 1.06% (0.186 0.19)
5-0 @ 0.96% (0.158 0.16)
Other @ 2.65%
Total : 55.06%
1-1 @ 10.58% (-0.54 -0.54)
2-2 @ 5.45% (0.129 0.13)
0-0 @ 5.14% (-0.682 -0.68)
3-3 @ 1.25% (0.117 0.12)
Other @ 0.17%
Total : 22.59%
1-2 @ 5.85% (-0.22 -0.22)
0-1 @ 5.68% (-0.668 -0.67)
0-2 @ 3.14% (-0.322 -0.32)
1-3 @ 2.16% (-0.051 -0.05)
2-3 @ 2.01% (0.074 0.07)
0-3 @ 1.16% (-0.102 -0.1)
Other @ 2.35%
Total : 22.34%

How you voted: AC Milan vs Monza

AC Milan
86.3%
Draw
7.8%
Monza
5.9%
51
Head to Head
Feb 18, 2023 5pm
Gameweek 23
Monza
0-1
AC Milan
Messias (31')
Oct 22, 2022 5pm
Gameweek 11
AC Milan
4-1
Monza
Diaz (16', 41'), Origi (65'), Leao (84')
Ranocchia (70')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CInter Milan38297289226794
2AC Milan38229776492775
3Juventus381914554312371
4Atalanta BCAtalanta372161070393169
5Bologna381814654322268
6Roma381891165461963
7Lazio381871349391061
8Fiorentina371691258441457
9Napoli381314115548753
10Torino381314113636053
11Genoa381213134545049
12Monza381112153951-1245
13Hellas VeronaHellas Verona38911183851-1338
14Lecce38814163254-2238
15Udinese38619133753-1637
16Empoli3899202954-2536
17CagliariCagliari38812184268-2636
RFrosinoneFrosinone38811194469-2535
RSassuoloSassuolo3879224375-3230
RSalernitana38211253281-4917


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