Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monza win with a probability of 53.05%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Genoa had a probability of 22.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monza win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.92%) and 2-1 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.71%), while for a Genoa win it was 0-1 (7.16%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Monza in this match.
Result | ||
Monza | Draw | Genoa |
53.05% ( 0.43) | 24.65% ( 0.03) | 22.29% ( -0.46) |
Both teams to score 49.89% ( -0.65) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
48.21% ( -0.58) | 51.78% ( 0.58) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
26.45% ( -0.51) | 73.55% ( 0.51) |
Monza Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.52% ( -0.05) | 19.48% ( 0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
48.66% ( -0.09) | 51.34% ( 0.09) |
Genoa Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
61.96% ( -0.77) | 38.04% ( 0.77) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.19% ( -0.75) | 74.81% ( 0.75) |
Score Analysis |
Monza | Draw | Genoa |
1-0 @ 12.12% ( 0.26) 2-0 @ 9.92% ( 0.19) 2-1 @ 9.58% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 5.41% ( 0.1) 3-1 @ 5.23% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 2.53% ( -0.06) 4-0 @ 2.21% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 2.14% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.03% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.9% Total : 53.05% | 1-1 @ 11.71% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.41% ( 0.17) 2-2 @ 4.63% ( -0.1) Other @ 0.9% Total : 24.65% | 0-1 @ 7.16% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 5.66% ( -0.12) 0-2 @ 3.46% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 1.82% ( -0.08) 2-3 @ 1.49% ( -0.07) 0-3 @ 1.12% ( -0.04) Other @ 1.58% Total : 22.29% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Inter Milan | 38 | 29 | 7 | 2 | 89 | 22 | 67 | 94 |
2 | AC Milan | 38 | 22 | 9 | 7 | 76 | 49 | 27 | 75 |
3 | Juventus | 38 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 54 | 31 | 23 | 71 |
4 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 38 | 21 | 6 | 11 | 72 | 42 | 30 | 69 |
5 | Bologna | 38 | 18 | 14 | 6 | 54 | 32 | 22 | 68 |
6 | Roma | 38 | 18 | 9 | 11 | 65 | 46 | 19 | 63 |
7 | Lazio | 38 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 49 | 39 | 10 | 61 |
8 | Fiorentina | 38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | 61 | 46 | 15 | 60 |
9 | Torino | 38 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 36 | 36 | 0 | 53 |
10 | Napoli | 38 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 55 | 48 | 7 | 53 |
11 | Genoa | 38 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 45 | 45 | 0 | 49 |
12 | Monza | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 39 | 51 | -12 | 45 |
13 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 38 | 51 | -13 | 38 |
14 | Lecce | 38 | 8 | 14 | 16 | 32 | 54 | -22 | 38 |
15 | Udinese | 38 | 6 | 19 | 13 | 37 | 53 | -16 | 37 |
16 | CagliariCagliari | 38 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 42 | 68 | -26 | 36 |
17 | Empoli | 38 | 9 | 9 | 20 | 29 | 54 | -25 | 36 |
R | FrosinoneFrosinone | 38 | 8 | 11 | 19 | 44 | 69 | -25 | 35 |
R | SassuoloSassuolo | 38 | 7 | 9 | 22 | 43 | 75 | -32 | 30 |
R | Salernitana | 38 | 2 | 11 | 25 | 32 | 81 | -49 | 17 |
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