MX23RW : Thursday, May 23 22:53:15| >> :60:3142:3142:
Women's Champions League | Group Stage
Nov 23, 2023 at 8pm UK
Stadio Tre Fontane

Roma
3 - 0
Ajax

Giacinti (5', 14'), Giugliano (47')
Spugna (80')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Keijzer (49'), Spitse (89')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Women's Champions League clash between Roma Women and Ajax Women, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Roma Women

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Last Game: Bayern Munich 2-2 Roma
Wednesday, November 15 at 5.45pm in Women's Champions League
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Ajax Women

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Last Game: Ajax 2-0 PSG
Wednesday, November 15 at 8pm in Women's Champions League
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We said: Roma Women 2-1 Ajax Women

 Ajax's confidence would have taken a slight hit at the weekend following their first defeat of the season, and while we believe that they will run their Italian opponents close on Thursday, we think that the Dutch champions will be edged out by a Roma side that has won their last eight competitive home games since losing to Barcelona in March. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax Women win with a probability of 39.2%. A win for Roma Women had a probability of 36.76% and a draw had a probability of 24%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax Women win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.33%) and 0-2 (5.7%). The likeliest Roma Women win was 2-1 (8.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.99%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Roma Women would win this match.

Result
Roma WomenDrawAjax Women
36.76% (0.733 0.73) 24.04% (-0.283 -0.28) 39.2% (-0.445 -0.45)
Both teams to score 61.28% (1.145 1.15)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.91% (1.456 1.46)41.09% (-1.452 -1.45)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.52% (1.468 1.47)63.49% (-1.463 -1.46)
Roma Women Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.68% (1.046 1.05)22.32% (-1.043 -1.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.2% (1.545 1.55)55.8% (-1.542 -1.54)
Ajax Women Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.9% (0.42 0.42)21.1% (-0.417 -0.42)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.06% (0.648 0.65)53.94% (-0.645 -0.64)
Score Analysis
    Roma Women 36.76%
    Ajax Women 39.2%
    Draw 24.04%
Roma WomenDrawAjax Women
2-1 @ 8.24% (0.076000000000001 0.08)
1-0 @ 7.06% (-0.247 -0.25)
2-0 @ 5.3% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
3-1 @ 4.12% (0.163 0.16)
3-2 @ 3.2% (0.165 0.17)
3-0 @ 2.65% (0.072 0.07)
4-1 @ 1.54% (0.106 0.11)
4-2 @ 1.2% (0.097 0.1)
4-0 @ 0.99% (0.057 0.06)
Other @ 2.45%
Total : 36.76%
1-1 @ 10.99% (-0.24 -0.24)
2-2 @ 6.41% (0.14 0.14)
0-0 @ 4.71% (-0.318 -0.32)
3-3 @ 1.66% (0.106 0.11)
Other @ 0.27%
Total : 24.04%
1-2 @ 8.55% (-0.077 -0.08)
0-1 @ 7.33% (-0.396 -0.4)
0-2 @ 5.7% (-0.232 -0.23)
1-3 @ 4.43% (0.016 0.02)
2-3 @ 3.32% (0.113 0.11)
0-3 @ 2.96% (-0.082 -0.08)
1-4 @ 1.72% (0.028 0.03)
2-4 @ 1.29% (0.06 0.06)
0-4 @ 1.15% (-0.017 -0.02)
Other @ 2.75%
Total : 39.2%

How you voted: Roma vs Ajax

Roma Women
57.1%
Draw
9.5%
Ajax Women
33.3%
21
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