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La Liga | Gameweek 13
Nov 12, 2023 at 8pm UK
Estadio Civitas Metropolitano
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Atletico
3 - 1
Villarreal

Witsel (45+1'), Griezmann (80'), Lino (85')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Moreno (20')
Capoue (45+2'), Akhomach (77')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's La Liga clash between Atletico Madrid and Villarreal, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atletico Madrid

All competitions
La Liga
Last Game: Atletico 6-0 Celtic
Tuesday, November 7 at 8pm in Champions League

Villarreal

All competitions
La Liga
Last Game: Maccabi Haifa 1-2 Villarreal
Thursday, November 9 at 5.45pm in Europa League

We said: Atletico Madrid 2-0 Villarreal

 Villarreal have shown improvement of late, but they are well below the team that impressed for long stages of last season, and we are finding it tough to predict them to pick up a positive result here. Atletico will be desperate to return to winning ways in the league, and Simeone's side should have enough quality to secure all three points this weekend. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 50.19%. A win for Villarreal had a probability of 26.53% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.73%) and 2-0 (7.77%). The likeliest Villarreal win was 1-2 (6.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.78%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.

Result
Atletico MadridDrawVillarreal
50.19% (0.45800000000001 0.46) 23.28% (0.165 0.16) 26.53% (-0.621 -0.62)
Both teams to score 58.95% (-1.146 -1.15)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.01% (-1.266 -1.27)41.99% (1.269 1.27)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.6% (-1.284 -1.28)64.4% (1.287 1.29)
Atletico Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.13% (-0.303 -0.3)16.86% (0.305 0.31)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.12% (-0.543 -0.54)46.88% (0.545 0.55)
Villarreal Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.9% (-1.116 -1.12)29.1% (1.119 1.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.98% (-1.402 -1.4)65.02% (1.405 1.41)
Score Analysis
    Atletico Madrid 50.19%
    Villarreal 26.53%
    Draw 23.27%
Atletico MadridDrawVillarreal
2-1 @ 9.6% (0.055999999999999 0.06)
1-0 @ 8.73% (0.404 0.4)
2-0 @ 7.77% (0.283 0.28)
3-1 @ 5.69% (-0.025 -0.03)
3-0 @ 4.61% (0.122 0.12)
3-2 @ 3.52% (-0.127 -0.13)
4-1 @ 2.53% (-0.037 -0.04)
4-0 @ 2.05% (0.035 0.04)
4-2 @ 1.56% (-0.074 -0.07)
5-1 @ 0.9% (-0.023 -0.02)
Other @ 3.21%
Total : 50.19%
1-1 @ 10.78% (0.17 0.17)
2-2 @ 5.92% (-0.153 -0.15)
0-0 @ 4.91% (0.274 0.27)
3-3 @ 1.45% (-0.101 -0.1)
Other @ 0.22%
Total : 23.27%
1-2 @ 6.66% (-0.103 -0.1)
0-1 @ 6.06% (0.157 0.16)
0-2 @ 3.74% (-0.02 -0.02)
1-3 @ 2.74% (-0.131 -0.13)
2-3 @ 2.44% (-0.142 -0.14)
0-3 @ 1.54% (-0.057 -0.06)
Other @ 3.36%
Total : 26.53%

How you voted: Atletico vs Villarreal

Atletico Madrid
88.5%
Draw
7.7%
Villarreal
3.8%
52
Head to Head
Jun 4, 2023 5.30pm
Gameweek 38
Villarreal
2-2
Atletico
Jackson (9'), Pascual (90+2')
Moreno (36'), Capoue (39'), Baena (75')
Correa (18', 56')
Barrios (68'), Correa (76')
Witsel (70')
> Preview
Aug 21, 2022 6.30pm
Gameweek 2
Atletico
0-2
Villarreal

Felix (48'), Gimenez (90+1')
Molina (90+4')
Pino (73'), Moreno (90+7')
Parejo (90+3'), Baena (90+4'), Moreno (90+9')
> Preview
Jan 9, 2022 8pm
Gameweek 20
Villarreal
2-2
Atletico
Torres (29'), Moreno (58')
Correa (10'), Kondogbia (67')
Kondogbia (71')
Kondogbia (90+2')
> Preview
Aug 29, 2021 9pm
Gameweek 3
Atletico
2-2
Villarreal
Suarez (56'), Mandi (90+4' og.)
Simeone (16'), Correa (28'), Lemar (45'), Suarez (59'), De Paul (85')
Trigueros (52'), Danjuma (74')
Moreno (61'), Rulli (85')
> Preview
Feb 28, 2021 8pm
Gameweek 25
Villarreal
0-2
Atletico

Costa (32'), Albiol (51')
Pedraza (25' og.), Felix (69')
Felipe (35'), Lemar (45+5'), Niguez (47')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CReal Madrid38298187266195
2Barcelona38267579443585
3GironaGirona38256785463981
4Atletico MadridAtletico382441070432776
5Athletic Bilbao381911861372468
6Real Sociedad3816121051391260
7Real BetisBetis38141594845357
8Villarreal381411136565053
9Valencia381310154045-549
10AlavesAlaves381210163646-1046
11Osasuna38129174556-1145
12Getafe381013154254-1243
13Celta Vigo381011174657-1141
14Sevilla381011174854-641
15Mallorca38816143344-1140
16Las PalmasLas Palmas381010183347-1440
17Rayo Vallecano38814162948-1938
RCadizCadiz38615172655-2933
RAlmeria38312234375-3221
RGranada3849253879-4121
> La Liga Full Table


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