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Belarusian Premier League | Gameweek 11
May 30, 2020 at 3pm UK
Spartak Stadium

Belshina
2 - 3
Slavia Mozyr

Bashilov (17'), Solanovich (24')
Glebko (22'), Bashilov (54'), Bordukov (66'), Nechaev (69')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Nedashkovskiy (33'), Kovel (78' og.), Narh (90')
Nedashkovskiy (43'), Shevchenko (81')

Preview: Belshina vs. Slavia Mozyr - prediction, form guide, head-to-head record

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Belarusian top-flight clash between Belshina and Slavia Mozyr, including predictions, form guide and head-to-head records.

Belshina's search for their first victory of the 2020 Belarusian Premier League season will continue on Saturday afternoon when they welcome Slavia Mozyr to Stadyen Spartak.

Eduard Gradoboyev's side are currently bottom of the table with just three points to show from their 10 matches, while Slavia have picked up 12 points to occupy 11th position.


Match preview

Neman's Andrei Vasilyev in action with Belshina's Yevgeni Skoblikov on April 10, 2020© Reuters

Belshina won the second tier last season to earn promotion back to this level, but it does appear that the club will be in for a very difficult campaign in the Premier League.

The Bobruisk-based outfit actually lifted the Belarusian Premier League title in 2001, while they claimed a fourth-placed finish as recently as 2015, which is an indication of their standing at this level.

Gradoboyev's side have found it very tough to compete this season, though, picking up just three points from their 10 matches - suffering seven defeats in the process - to occupy bottom spot.

Belshina have also only scored seven times in the league this term - the joint-worst record in the division - while they will enter this weekend's clash off the back of a 4-0 defeat at Shakhtyor Soligorsk on May 22.

Slutsk's Roman Krivulkin in action with Slavia-Mozyr's Igor Costrov in March 2020© Reuters

Slavia, meanwhile, have won the Belarusian Premier League on two separate occasions, last lifting the title in 2000. They spent the 2018 season in the second tier, though, and finished eighth on their return to the top flight in 2019, which was their highest placing since 2001.

Mihail Martsinovich's side have made an inconsistent start to the current season, winning three, drawing three and losing four of their 10 matches to occupy 11th spot in the table.

They are only three points off the top six, though, meaning that a victory this weekend is likely to propel them up the division as a number of clubs have struggled for consistency in the early stages of the campaign.

Slavia have actually only won one of their last seven in the league, however, picking up just two points from their last three matches, which is a run that includes a 2-0 loss at Shakhtyor in their last away fixture.

Belshina Belarusian Premier League form: DLLLDL

Slavia Belarusian Premier League form: LLWDLD


Head To Head

Belshina have actually won 15 of the last 35 meetings between the two sides in all competitions, with Slavia claiming 13 victories and the further seven games finishing level.

Slavia were 2-0 winners when the pair last locked horns in the second tier back in October 2018, while Belshina have not been victorious in this fixture since September 2016.

That said, the league's basement side did triumph 4-3 on penalties when the pair locked horns in the last-16 stage of the Belarusian Cup in October 2018.


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We say: Belshina 0-1 Slavia

Slavia will not enter the match in the best of form, but it is difficult to back Belshina this weekend considering their form in the early stages of the campaign. We are not expecting many goals on Saturday afternoon but believe that the visitors will collect all three points.



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belshina win with a probability of 44.02%. A win for Slavia Mozyr had a probability of 30.53% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Belshina win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.06%) and 2-0 (7.51%). The likeliest Slavia Mozyr win was 0-1 (8.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.08%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.


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Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Torpedo-BelAZTorpedo-BelAZ10721113823
2Neman10703118321
3Dinamo Minsk105501661020
4Dinamo BrestDinamo Brest105412281419
5Slavia MozyrSlavia Mozyr10523159617
6Vitebsk10523128417
7Gomel10442149516
8Arsenal Dzerzhinsk1042488014
9IslochIsloch10343129313
10BATE BorisovBATE10334811-312
11Smorgon102531119-811
12SlutskSlutsk10316814-610
13Naftan101541015-58
14Dnepr Mogilev10145411-77
15FC MinskFC Minsk10037618-123
16Shakhtyor SoligorskSoligorsk10127820-12-15


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