Werder Bremen will have one final chance to avoid an automatic relegation to the German second division when they play host to FC Koln in the final weekend of the Bundesliga season on Saturday.
Koln, meanwhile, have already been assured of their top-flight status despite a woeful set of results in the last few weeks.
Match preview
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Bremen, a team that were Bundesliga champions as recently as the 2003-04 season, are fighting for their lives at the foot of the table after a truly dispiriting campaign.
Die Werderaner's 3-1 loss to Mainz 05 last weekend means they are condemned to finish in the bottom three for the first time since 1979-80 season, and their slim hopes of avoiding a 17th-placed standing will depend on Fortuna Dusseldorf's result against Union Berlin.
As things stand, Bremen are two points adrift of Dusseldorf in the relegation playoff spot, so Florian Kohfeldt's side would either have to win and hope Dusseldorf lose – or Dusseldorf draw to Union and Werder beat Koln by a five-goal margin.
The latter seems highly unlikely given their performances this term, but one thing is for sure in both scenarios – Bremen simply have to win this weekend to keep any hope of retaining their top-flight status alive.
Should they manage to leapfrog Dusseldorf into the 16th-placed playoff spot, they would be facing one of either Stuttgart, Heidenheim or Hamburg for the right to play in the pinnacle of German football next season.
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With regards to Koln, they have already secured their top-flight status for the 2020-21 campaign, although that was largely in part to their performances before the coronavirus-enforced postponement.
Schalke and Paderborn are the only other teams besides Koln that haven't tasted victory since the restart; Koln have drawn four and lost four of their last eight in the Bundesliga.
Nevertheless, a terrific return of eight wins from 10 between December and March was enough to distance Markus Gisdol's side from the drop zone and a swift return to the 2.Bundesliga.
Koln can still finish as high as 11th with a victory if Mainz, Schalke and Union Berlin all lose their final games of the season, but Gisdol will no doubt be disappointed by how his side have taken their foot off the gas at this stage, something he must address if they want to compete at the highest level for a little while longer.
A first-half strike from Jhon Cordoba was enough for Koln to take all three points against Bremen when the sides last locked horns in December.
Werder Bremen Bundesliga form: WLLWLL
Koln Bundesliga form: LLDLLD
Team News
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Bremen were dealt a huge blow against Mainz as Theodor Gebre Selassie was forced off with an ankle problem, and the defender is not expected to play a part in the final weekend of the season.
Milot Rashica picked up an injury during training on Wednesday and could also sit this one out - a nightmare ordeal for Kohfeldt at a time where he needs his strongest squad possible.
Kevin Vogt, Nuri Sahin and Kevin Mohwald all remain sidelined for Bremen. Defender Omer Toprak is back in training but is unlikely to be risked.
As far as Koln are concerned, Florian Kainz will miss out after picking up his fifth booking of the season in their draw with Frankfurt.
Kainz's absence opens up a spot for Dominick Drexler to come into the fold having started on the bench last time out, but Jonas Hector is unlikely to be involved due to a groin problem.
Werder Bremen possible starting lineup:
Pavlenka; Veljkovic, Langkamp, Moisander; Lang, Eggestein, Klaassen, Friedl; Osako; Bittencourt, Sargent
Koln possible starting lineup:
Horn; Leistner, Bornauw, Czichos; Ehizibue, Skhiri, Rexhbecaj, Jakobs; Drexler; Uth, Cordoba
We say: Werder Bremen 2-1 Koln
Bremen are preparing for one of the most important fixtures in the club's history, and it is somewhat of a blessing that they are coming up against a Koln side without victory since March.
There are no two ways about it - this is a must-win game for Kohfeldt's men. We reckon they are capable of pulling off a narrow victory, but their fate will be sealed if Dusseldorf pick up at least a point in their clash with Union Berlin.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Koln win with a probability of 43.94%. A win for Werder Bremen had a probability of 31.22% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Koln win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.1%) and 0-2 (7.15%). The likeliest Werder Bremen win was 1-0 (7.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.69%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.
