Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 44.68%. A draw had a probability of 28.1% and a win for Nacional had a probability of 27.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.91%) and 2-1 (8.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13%), while for a Nacional win it was 0-1 (9.96%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.
Result | ||
Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Nacional |
44.68% | 28.1% | 27.22% |
Both teams to score 44.79% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
39.29% | 60.7% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
19.22% | 80.77% |
Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.89% | 27.1% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
37.51% | 62.48% |
Nacional Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
61.43% | 38.56% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
24.69% | 75.3% |
Score Analysis |
Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Nacional |
1-0 @ 13.64% 2-0 @ 8.91% 2-1 @ 8.49% 3-0 @ 3.88% 3-1 @ 3.69% 3-2 @ 1.76% 4-0 @ 1.27% 4-1 @ 1.21% Other @ 1.84% Total : 44.67% | 1-1 @ 13% 0-0 @ 10.44% 2-2 @ 4.04% Other @ 0.6% Total : 28.09% | 0-1 @ 9.96% 1-2 @ 6.2% 0-2 @ 4.75% 1-3 @ 1.97% 0-3 @ 1.51% 2-3 @ 1.29% Other @ 1.56% Total : 27.22% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 30 | 26 | 2 | 2 | 87 | 27 | 60 | 80 |
2 | Benfica | 30 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 68 | 24 | 44 | 73 |
3 | Porto | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 55 | 24 | 31 | 62 |
4 | Braga | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 63 | 41 | 22 | 62 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 30 | 17 | 6 | 7 | 45 | 32 | 13 | 57 |
6 | AroucaArouca | 30 | 13 | 5 | 12 | 51 | 40 | 11 | 44 |
7 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 30 | 12 | 7 | 11 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 43 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 30 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 36 |
9 | Casa Pia | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 32 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 31 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 30 | 5 | 16 | 9 | 32 | 38 | -6 | 31 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 37 | 48 | -11 | 31 |
13 | BoavistaBoavista | 30 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 35 | 56 | -21 | 30 |
14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 30 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 45 | 52 | -7 | 30 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 30 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 29 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 30 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 30 | 62 | -32 | 23 |
18 | Vizela | 30 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 29 | 62 | -33 | 21 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |