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Newcastle logo
Premier League | Gameweek 20
Jan 26, 2021 at 6pm UK
St James' Park
Leeds logo
Newcastle
1 - 2
Leeds
Almiron (57')
Schar (87')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Raphinha (17'), Harrison (61')
Alioski (54'), Rodrigo (87'), Harrison (90+1')

Preview: Newcastle United vs. Leeds United - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Premier League clash between Newcastle United and Leeds United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Two out-of-form teams meet at St James' Park in a midweek round of Premier League fixtures on Tuesday as Newcastle United play host to Leeds United.

Newcastle have lost five games in a row in all competitions and are winless in 10, while Leeds have lost their last three without scoring a goal.


Match preview

Leeds United manager Marcelo Bielsa pictured on January 16, 2021© Reuters

Had it been any other bottom-half club, a fifth loss on the spin and growing fan discontent surely would have brought an end to the manager's tenure.

Not so for Newcastle boss Steve Bruce, who looks likely to remain in place for as long as owner Mike Ashley is waiting for the club to be taken over.

The big concern for United fans is that, having exited both cup competitions in recent weeks, they are now sliding down the table and are in relegation danger.

Saturday's 2-0 loss to Aston Villa was the fourth successive game in which the Magpies have failed to find the net, the last three of those losses coming in the league.

Bruce's men are seven points above the dropzone, but an improving Fulham side have a game in hand to play and plenty of time to make up the deficit.

The situation at Leeds is not quite as bad, despite also struggling for form and indeed goals since the turn of the year.

Newcastle United manager Steve Bruce pictured on January 23, 2021© Reuters

United have gone down 3-0 to Tottenham Hotspur and Crawley Town in the Premier League and FA Cup respectively, as well as losing 1-0 to Brighton & Hove Albion last time out.

They managed just seven shots in that loss to lowly Brighton, their fourth-lowest in a game under Marcelo Bielsa, and are the only top-flight club without a goal in 2021.

Indeed, only Cardiff City in 2019 have gone four Premier League games without scoring at the start of a calendar year, while Ipswich Town in 1970 were the last top-flight side to lose four on the spin without scoring.

It must be remembered that Leeds are still in their first campaign back at this level since 2004, though, and Bielsa's charges are only six points behind Chelsea in ninth place.

Leeds certainly did not struggle for goals in the reverse meeting, seeing off Newcastle 5-2 at Elland Road in December, but they have not completed a league double in this fixture since 1975-76.

Newcastle United Premier League form: LDLLLL
Newcastle United form (all competitions): DLLLLL

Leeds United Premier League form: WLWWLL
Leeds United form (all competitions): LWWLLLL



Team News

Leeds United midfielder Kalvin Phillips pictured on January 10, 2021© Reuters

Newcastle will be without Paul Dummett and Federico Fernandez for this match, while fellow defender Ciaran Clark is also a fitness doubt.

However, Bruce has Allan Saint-Maximin back involved after the French winger made his first appearance in two months as a second-half substitute against Villa.

Scoring goals may be an issue for Newcastle, but Callum Wilson - who has gone six full games without finding the net - seems likely to lead the line once again.

As for Leeds, Gaetano Berardi, Adam Forshaw, Robin Koch and Illan Meslier are all expected to miss out on this midweek trip to St James' Park.

Kalvin Phillips is back available after serving a ban, though, and is expected to take over from Pascal Struijk in holding midfield.

Striker Patrick Bamford scored seven goals from his first 29 shots in the league this season, but he has since netted three times from his last 36 attempts.

Newcastle United possible starting lineup:
Darlow; Yedlin, Clark, Lascelles, Schar, Lewis; Almiron, Shelvey, Hayden, Saint-Maximin; Wilson

Leeds United possible starting lineup:
Casilla; Dallas, Ayling, Cooper, Alioski; Raphinha, Rodrigo, Phillips, Klich, Harrison; Bamford


SM words green background

We say: Newcastle United 0-0 Leeds United

Under-fire Newcastle boss Bruce has never lost a home league match against Leeds in his managerial career (P7 W5 D2), facing no side more without losing at home in the league.

The hosts are in desperate need of a victory, but so too are their opponents on the back of a disappointing losing run of their own.

All going to form, everything points towards this game finishing in a stalemate that would not really suit either side.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a draw or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Draw/Away:data



Video prediction

Watch the Sports Mole Football Shorts prediction for this game below:


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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 60.98%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Newcastle United had a probability of 17.58%.

The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.54%) and 1-2 (9.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.16%), while for a Newcastle United win it was 1-0 (5.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Leeds United would win this match.


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Newcastle United manager Steve Bruce pictured on January 9, 2021
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Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Leeds UnitedLeeds38257670284282
2Leicester CityLeicester37264774334182
3Ipswich TownIpswich38249580493181
4Southampton36227773472673
5West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom381991059362366
6Norwich CityNorwich381871369541561
7Hull City371610115346758
8Coventry CityCoventry3715121059431657
9Preston North EndPreston37168134954-556
10Middlesbrough38166165352154
11Cardiff CityCardiff38165174351-853
12Sunderland38146184845348
13Watford381212145351248
14Bristol City38138174245-347
15Swansea CitySwansea381210164858-1046
16Millwall381110173650-1443
17Blackburn RoversBlackburn38119185164-1342
18Plymouth ArgylePlymouth381011175462-841
19Stoke CityStoke38118193553-1841
20Queens Park RangersQPR381010183650-1440
21Birmingham CityBirmingham38109194259-1739
22Huddersfield TownHuddersfield38815154261-1939
23Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds38115223061-3138
24Rotherham UnitedRotherham38311243077-4720

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