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Ligue 1 | Gameweek 16
Dec 20, 2020 at 12pm UK
Stade Francis-Le Blé
Montpellier

Brest
2 - 2
Montpellier

Philippoteaux (58'), Chardonnet (79')
Chardonnet (45+2'), Herelle (51')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Laborde (45+1'), Delort (82')
Chotard (66')

Preview: Brest vs. Montpellier HSC - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Brest and Montpellier HSC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Two sides looking to return to winning ways in Ligue 1 will lock horns at the Stade Francis-Le Ble on Sunday lunchtime as Brest play host to Montpellier HSC.

Les Pirates played out a four-goal draw with Lyon in midweek, whereas Montpellier's European dreams were damaged after they suffered a dismal home defeat to Metz.


Match preview

Brest coach Olivier Dall'Oglio pictured in January 2020© Reuters

Brest were the only team in the division yet to share the spoils in a game before their trip to Lyon, but Olivier Dall'Oglio would have certainly been satisfied with a point against last season's Champions League semi finalists.

Anthony Lopes's own goal put Brest ahead before Memphis Depay and Maxwell Cornet came off the bench to turn the game on its head, with Les Gones looking all but guaranteed to win after Brest's Paul Lasne was sent off with 15 minutes to go.

However, Romain Faivre converted from 12 yards in the dying seconds to ensure that the 10 men of Brest walked away from the Groupama Stadium with something to show for their efforts, and Wednesday's 2-2 stalemate is the first time that Dall'Oglio's men have drawn a game this season.

Managing to claim a point from a trip to Lyon with 10 men is no mean feat whatsoever, and Dall'Oglio's charges are in a terrific spot at the moment with five wins from their last seven - a run of form which has seen them rise to 10th in the table.

Only the top three teams in Lyon, Paris Saint-Germain and Lille can boast more than Brest's 25 goals this season, but Les Pirates must shore up their defence if they are to mount an unexpected charge for the European places, as 27 shipped is the highest in the league bar Nimes.

Montpellier manager Michel Der Zakarian pictured in February 2020© Reuters

Meanwhile, Montpellier's charge for a spot in continental competition took a huge blow with a dampening home defeat to Metz in midweek - their second loss on familiar territory in a row.

Aaron Leya Iseka netted from the spot before Habib Maiga wrapped up the win in the final few minutes, but Montpellier remain in the top five despite a recent Rennes resurgence.

Michel Der Zakarian's men could not take advantage of Marseille's defeat to Rennes - and Montpellier sit one point behind the fourth-placed Olympiens as things stand, with Rennes only one point behind and ready to pounce on any more slip-ups.

In fact, Rennes are the only team to take all three points from a visit of Montpellier so far this season, as La Paillade have since strung together a six-game unbeaten run on the road, including four wins from their last four on unfamiliar territory.

Furthermore, Montpellier have come up trumps in their last four encounters with Brest, and Les Pirates have not beaten this weekend's visitors since the 2007-08 Ligue 2 campaign.

Brest Ligue 1 form: WWWLWD

Montpellier HSC Ligue 1 form: WWWLWL


Team News

Montpellier captain Hilton pictured in February 2017© Reuters

Brest midfielder Lasne has been suspended for two matches following his sending-off against Lyon, with Wednesday's goalscorer Faivre set to deputise for the 31-year-old.

Right-back Ronael Pierre-Gabriel is not expected to recover from a hamstring injury in time for this one, with Julien Faussurier waiting in the wings should Dall'Oglio freshen things up.

Romain Perraud should also come back in on the opposite side of defence, while Steve Mounie is in line for a recall to the Pirates attack.

Meanwhile, Montpellier manager Der Zakarian is blessed with a near fully-fit contingent for this encounter, although Damien Le Tallec has not been involved recently for unexplained reasons.

Hilton, Arnaud Souquet and Joris Chotard have all been relegated to the bench in recent weeks, but Der Zakarian could be tempted to make a couple of alterations with a crunch match against Lille to come.

However, Teji Savanier has reportedly picked up a thigh problem which will rule him out of action until the New Year.

Brest possible starting lineup:
Larsonneur; Faussurier, Herelle, Duverne, Perraud; Honorat, Faivre, M'Bock, Philippoteaux; Mounie, Cardona

Montpellier HSC possible starting lineup:
Omlin; Souquet, Congre, Mendes, Ristic; Chotard, Ferri, Mollet; Laborde, Delort, Mavididi


SM words green background

We say: Brest 1-2 Montpellier HSC

Brest and Montpellier both boast an impressive tally at the correct end of the pitch, but defensive questions are being asked of both sides ahead of this encounter. On the whole, the two managers can be satisfied with their teams' performances approaching the New Year, and this is a tough game to call, but Montpellier have been strong away from home and we expect La Paillade to just edge it.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data


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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montpellier HSC win with a probability of 37.59%. A win for Brest had a probability of 35.89% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Montpellier HSC win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.24%) and 0-2 (6.49%). The likeliest Brest win was 1-0 (9.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.61%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood.


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