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Bayern logo
Bundesliga | Gameweek 10
Dec 5, 2020 at 5.30pm UK
Allianz Arena
Leipzig logo

Bayern
3 - 3
RB Leipzig

Musiala (30'), Muller (34', 75')
FT(HT: 2-2)
Nkunku (19'), Kluivert (36'), Forsberg (48')
Mukiele (51')

Preview: Bayern Munich vs. RB Leipzig - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Bayern Munich and RB Leipzig, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Bayern Munich take on RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga on Saturday in a top-of-the-table clash which could prove decisive in terms of the title picture.

League leaders Bayern have a two-point cushion over their forthcoming opponents at the top of the table; a draw on Saturday would be enough to keep them there.


Match preview

Bayern Munich defender David Alaba pictured on November 7, 2020© Reuters

Having surprisingly dropped points at home to Werder Bremen on the previous matchday, it was vital that Bayern did not do so again during a tricky trip to Stuttgart.

When Robert Lewandowski struck the post from close range and Manuel Neuer's rare misjudgement allowed Tanguy Coulibaly to slide the ball home into an empty net, it looked like being another one of those days for Hansi Flick's side. However, Bayern rallied, as the reigning European and Bundesliga champions so often do, with Kingsley Coman scoring for a third successive match by cutting in from the left flank and firing inside the near post.

After another Neuer mishap went unpunished, the in-form France winger continued to threaten, driving forwards with the ball before finding Lewandowski. The Pole's strike from range perhaps should have been saved by opposition goalkeeper Gregor Kobel, but the power proved too much for him to handle.

Neuer redeemed himself with a fine save late on before Douglas Costa scored his first goal since his return to the club in the summer after taking a leaf out of Coman's book by cutting inside and firing inside Grobel's near post to seal a hard-fought 3-1 victory.

Having been afforded the luxury of making nine changes in Tuesday's 1-1 draw at Atletico Madrid in the Champions League, Flick will be hoping his players are revitalised and fresh heading into their crucial clash with Leipzig.

Dayot Upamecano in action for RB Leipzig on October 28, 2020© Reuters

Indeed, Leipzig's legs could be flagging in comparison after Wednesday's dramatic 4-3 win at Istanbul Basaksehir, which ensured that victory against Manchester United on the final Champions League matchday will guarantee Julian Nagelsmann's side's progression to the knockout stages for a second successive season.

With Leipzig needing to win, the 33-year-old understandably utilised his first XI in Turkey, with goals from Yussuf Poulsen, Nordi Mukiele and Dani Olmo giving the visitors a 3-1 lead in the second half. However, a hat-trick from Irfan Kahveci looked to have denied the Germans victory, before substitute Alexander Sorloth struck in injury time for a dramatic winner.

The former Crystal Palace striker did not have such luck in last weekend's 2-1 victory over Arminia Bielefeld, however, missing from the penalty spot after being brought down by Amos Pieper. Nagelsmann admitted after the match that his side were fortunate to gain the three points, with the Bundesliga new boys their own worst victims once again after Pieper's careless backpass allowed Olmo to square for Christopher Nkunku, who obliged with a simple finish to add to Angelino's opener.

The 2016-17 Bundesliga runners-up will almost certainly require a more controlled performance if they are to have any chance of beating Bayern and subsequently overthrowing the Bavarians at the top of the table.

Bayern Munich Bundesliga form: WWWWDW
Bayern Munich form (all competitions): WWDWWD

RB Leipzig Bundesliga form: WWLWDW
RB Leipzig form (all competitions): WWDLWW


Team News

Bayern Munich's Joshua Kimmich is helped off after picking up an injury in November 2020© Reuters

Joshua Kimmich and Alphonso Davies remain long-term injuries for the hosts, though the duo did resume light training earlier this week, so returning to first-team action in the New Year looks increasingly likely for the instrumental pair.

Lewandowski did not travel to Madrid due to minor muscular problems, but the 32-year-old should recover in time and was likely being rested by Flick in any case after a gruelling period.

The 55-year-old must choose between Jerome Boateng and Niklas Sule at the heart of his defence, with the former likely to be preferred after an impressive performance at Stuttgart. Coman should continue on the opposite flank to Serge Gnabry, with summer transfer window signing Leroy Sane having to remain patient for regular starts.

Nagelsmann, meanwhile, remains without long-term absentees Konrad Laimer (ankle), Fabrice Hartmann and Lukas Klostermann (both knee), with Hwang Hee-chan (coronavirus) and Benjamin Henrichs (knee) likely to be absent, too.

The 33-year-old will be wary of fatigue in his side after a short turnaround between their trips to Turkey and Munich, with the likes of Nkunku, Tyler Adams and Marcel Halstenberg providing options to come into the side.

Bayern Munich possible starting lineup:
Neuer; Pavard, Boateng, Alaba, Hernandez; Tolisso, Goretzka; Gnabry, Muller, Coman; Lewandowski

RB Leipzig possible starting lineup:
Gulasci; Konate, Upamecano, Halstenberg; Mukiele, Sabitzer, Kampl, Angelino; Olmo, Forsberg; Poulsen


SM words green background

We say: Bayern Munich 3-1 RB Leipzig

Having already had the advantage of an extra day's rest in midweek, there is little doubt that advantage was increased further by Bayern's shorter trip and ability to rest nine players in what was essentially a meaningless match for them in Madrid.

As such, we expect Flick's side to have a little too much intensity for a Leipzig side who have not been firing on all cylinders of late in any case.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 2.5:data


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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 65.98%. A win for RB Leipzig had a probability of 17.1% and a draw had a probability of 16.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.73%) and 2-0 (6.46%). The likeliest RB Leipzig win was 1-2 (4.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (6.44%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.


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Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen26224066184870
2Bayern MunichBayern26193478314760
3Stuttgart26182660312956
4Borussia DortmundDortmund26148453322150
5RB Leipzig26154760322849
6Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt26101064235740
7Augsburg269894342135
8Hoffenheim2696114450-633
9Freiburg2696113648-1233
10Werder Bremen2686123541-630
11Heidenheim2678113544-929
12Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach26610104650-428
13Union BerlinUnion Berlin2684142542-1728
14Wolfsburg2667133144-1325
15VfL BochumVfL Bochum26510113054-2425
16Mainz 05Mainz26310132246-2419
17FC Koln2639142047-2718
18SV Darmstadt 98Darmstadt2627172665-3913


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